In a world obsessed with data, designers often find themselves at a crossroads. How can we justify decisions about a rapidly emerging future when all of our data comes from the past?
This paradox is part of the really great conversation between Peter Merholz, Jesse James Garrett and Roger Martin in a recent episode of the Finding Our Way podcast —the idea that designers must boldly set a direction, even without concrete evidence, and create the conditions where future data will validate their vision.
Their insights challenge the conventional reliance on past data and advocate for a more experimental, visionary approach.
The podcast episode is about 50 minutes long and covered lots of interesting territory, from Aristotle to the present day to the future.
The Data Paradox: No Certainty, Only Experimentation
One of the fundamental challenges in design and innovation is that we cannot rely on data about the future—because it doesn’t exist yet. The only certainty is what has already happened, and yet businesses demand quantifiable proof before taking risks. This presents a dilemma: how do you move forward when the very act of moving forward requires an element of faith?
The answer, according to Roger Martin, is to think of design as a process of turning the future into the past productively. Instead of waiting for perfect certainty, design teams must experiment, predict, and validate their approach in real time. In other words, they must create their own proof.
Calling Your Shot: The Babe Ruth Effect
A key insight from the discussion is the idea of “calling your shot” before taking action. Babe Ruth’s famous home run—where he allegedly pointed to the outfield before hitting the ball exactly there—is legendary, not just because of the skill involved, but because he made a bold prediction and then delivered on it.
For designers and innovators, this means being clear about their vision. Instead of just doing and hoping for the best, they should make their intentions explicit. If they succeed, it cements their credibility. If they fail, it provides a learning opportunity that refines the approach for the next iteration.
Design’s Lost Moment: What Happened After 2009?
Around 2009, design seemed poised to remake business. Books like The Design of Business and Subject to Change fueled a movement toward design-led innovation. It was a heady time, filled with optimism about how design could drive transformation. But that promise never fully materialized. Why?
The discussion suggests that anomalies—like the launch of the iPhone or the success of the Herman Miller Aeron chair—created momentary waves, but they didn’t lead to sustained, systemic change. Design thinking became a corporate buzzword, often stripped of its original boldness and reduced to a safe, incremental tool rather than a disruptive force.
A Longer Horizon: Thinking in 50-Year Cycles
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from The Moment’s discussion is that true transformation takes longer than we think. Instead of expecting seismic shifts in a decade, we should be thinking in 50-year cycles. Design’s impact on business may not have been fully realized in 2009, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be in the coming decades.
The challenge is to keep pushing forward—to continue making bold predictions, testing them, and turning the future into the past one experiment at a time. This is how designers navigate uncertainty. This is how they create the conditions for proof. This is how they shape the world.
Final Thoughts: Designing for What’s Next
The North Star isn’t about having perfect clarity from day one. It’s about setting a direction, committing to the journey, and creating the future in a way that, in hindsight, looks inevitable. Designers must embrace the unknown, call their shots, and keep building the proof they need along the way.
In a world obsessed with past data, the real leaders are those who have the courage to design the future.
Daniel Rose
As a Partner at The Moment, Dan (he/him) sees the potential to do great work all around us through groups of people coming together to tackle tough challenges. He excels at guiding groups to achieve collective outcomes that surpass individual efforts.